America RIP: 1776-2050

The die is cast unless…there is a seismic cultural shift and millions of noncitizens do not vote.

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Robert Wright’s review of my book captures the essence of my journey in America. 

“There is a right way and a wrong way, always choose the right way.”  Abraham Sabrin (1914-2001)

“Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future!”  Niels Bohr

We the People of the United States, in Order to form a more perfect Union, establish Justice, insure domestic Tranquility, provide for the common defence, (sic) promote the general Welfare, and secure the Blessings of Liberty to ourselves and our Posterity, do ordain and establish this Constitution for the United States of America. Preamble to the Constitution

Every Wednesday at 11:05am talk show host Gary Nolan and I discuss the economy and politics.

America will no longer be a 50-state country by the middle of the century…if current trends continue.  This is a revision to the forecast I made in October 2019 when I delivered the Raciti Memorial Lecture at Ramapo College, a few months before Covid became a household word. 

At that time, I predicted America would no longer exist as a nation no later than 2080. The primary reason for my forecast is the cultural differences in America that are irreconcilable.  A nation cannot survive as a free country unless a vast majority of the population embraces the same values about the economy, personal responsibility, civil liberties, social issues, and foreign policy.  Breathtaking events of the past four years have moved up the demise of 50 state American nation.

One of the reasons I believe the American republic could soon become a one-party dictatorship is the flood of migrants coming to America that the Democrats will harvest to vote in next year’s election. If mail in balloting is widespread, what is there to prevent noncitizens from voting for president and congressional candidates in 2024?  If enough noncitizen migrants vote Democratic next year by mail or in person and in subsequent years in battleground states, the Democrats will have a lock on the presidency and Congress forever! 

Has this been the reason the Biden administration has allowed more than four million migrants to enter America since he became president nearly three years ago?  To ask the question I believe is to answer it.

The evidence I presented four years ago about the breakup of America was based on the unfolding economic, political, social, and cultural trends that began during the Progressive Era and have accelerated in the 21^stcentury.  In other words, the DC leviathan could cause some states to secede as the federal government’s overreach becomes intolerable for citizens in the South and Midwest. 

During the Progressive Era the evil federal income tax was enacted, the engine of inflation the Federal Reserve was created, Prohibition was enacted and then mercifully repealed. 

The next “great leap forward,” in Progressive polices, occurred during the Hoover-FDR New Deal.  Yes, the New Deal began under President Hoover.   The myth that Hoover was a “do nothing” president was refuted 60 years ago by Murray Rothbard in America’s Great Depression. 

These and future events confirm the Robert Higgs’ thesis that a “crisis’ leads to the expansion of government power that does not recede after the crisis ends. 

In the 1960s LBJ’s Great Society spending and America’s second undeclared war since the end of World War, this time in Vietnam, cemented the permanent Welfare-Warfare State (WWS) that is defended by both Democrats and Republicans. Republicans do not have the solution to the WWS because they defend a government “safety net,” a euphemism for a welfare state, support the Federal Reserve, and a massive Pentagon budget.

When the Republicans controlled the presidency (Eisenhower, Nixon-Ford, Reagan, Bush I, Bush II, and Trump) the WWS was not repealed but expanded with more unconstitutional spending and undeclared wars.  In addition, the Deep State got a gift that keeps on giving with the passage of the Patriot Act after 9/11 and the recent Covid lockdowns and mandates, creating the Security-Industrial Complex.

Thanks to both Trump and Biden the federal budget has increased substantially, budget deficits have skyrocketed, and the national debt has ballooned spectacularly.   In short, Trump was not a fiscal conservative, and Republicans do not have any credibility when it comes to fiscal responsibility. 

In other words, there is “not a dime’s worth of difference” between the Democrats and Republicans.  Or, as Ross Perot asserted in his 1992 presidential campaign, the federal government “bribes” the American people with their own money.  I would amend that because since 40% of the American people do not pay federal income taxes.

The federal government “robs Peter to pay Paul.”  The redistribution of income and dependency of tens of millions of Americans on other people’s money are the hallmark of the welfare state. 

And the warfare state has been taken to a dangerous level by Biden, who is risking a nuclear confrontation with Russia.  The seemingly endless US military and financial support for Ukraine in its conflict with Russia could have been avoided if diplomacy had been used to diffuse the crisis.  Instead, the Biden administration apparently believes that supporting Ukraine would achieve the neoconservative objective of “regime change” in the former Soviet Union.  It is not going to happen. 

As more and more pro liberty Americans learn about the evil plans of the progressives, and a critical mass of the public arrives at the conclusion that peaceful secession is the only way to end the subjugation of the federal government, then the stage would be set for another attempt at a “dissolving” the Union. 

This attempt would have to be peaceful by the pro secessionist states. A future president probably would attempt to keep the Union intact by force.  We could then have a confrontation between the people and the might of the federal government reminiscent of the final scene in V for Vendetta, where peaceful confrontation wins out. 

Or, we could have an American renaissance, where the people would demand a limited government republic, civil liberties, and a noninterventionist foreign policy.  I am not holding my breath for this necessary alternative to the WWS. 

Nevertheless, as Edmund Burke observed, “The only thing necessary for evil to triumph in the world is that good men do nothing.”

This is why instead of staying retired, I am writing on Substack and soon will have another venue to reach the masses. Please share my Substack with your network.

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This evening at sundown Yom Kippur, the Day Atonement, begins.  If you will be fasting beginning this evening, have a good fast.

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My essay on the economy was published in Fortune, https://fortune.com/2023/03/27/ -2023-layoffs-tech-finance-unemployment-outlook-fed-rates-murray-sabrin/  This is an update of my 2021 forecast, https://fortune.com/2021/12/09/next-recession-heres-everything-bubble-markets-2021-2022-covid-murray-sabrin/ 

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Murray Sabrin, PhD, is emeritus professor of finance, Ramapo College of New Jersey. Dr. Sabrin is considered a “public intellectual” for writing about the economy in scholarly and popular publications. His new book, The Finance of Health Care: Wellness and Innovative Approaches to Employee Medical Insurance (Business Expert Press, Oct. 24, 2022), and his other BEP publication, Navigating the Boom/Bust Cycle: An Entrepreneur’s Survival Guide (October 2021), provides decision makers with tools needed to help manage their businesses during the business cycle.  Sabrin's autobiography, From Immigrant to Public Intellectual: An American Story, was published in November, 2022.